I have tried several versions of this diagram and this is the
best of the lot. There are problems
because of the many variables. So I have divided the life cycle of colds into
five stages where obvious changes occur. The life cycle goes from left to right,
stages 0 to 5, as you will note the vertical dotted lines and at the bottom of
the graph, the stage.
In stage 0, is where I’m stalled and now have been
vaccinated 3 times. I hope to stay
there. Others are not so lucky. The rules
are that avoid close encounters, crowds, and wear at least some form of a mask. I’ve included reference 7 on this topic. My wife
is immune-compromised and by default so am I.
In the graph, the most important items are the response
curves and their total response lines. The latter is the red solid and dotted
lines closest to the horizontal axis, the sum of the red and blue line responses.
I should have used orange.
Stage 1 is one of the variables, the density and duration
time of exposure. Infected people that
are shedding viruses form a small aerosol cloud in front of them. The cloud is
reinforced at leased every breath they release, about 16 times a minute. It is
like a cloud of smoke you can’t see or smell. How close you get to a source and
how long you stay there, will determine the rate of virus replication. Low,
Medium, and High.
Stage 2 seems to take
1 to 4 days. The rate of virus replication is staggering. I haven’t put scale values on the vertical axis below or above
the horizontal axis. But the units go something like this, 1000, 100,000, 10,000,000,
109, etc. Symptoms such as
fever, coughing, extra mucus. You know the list. Meanwhile, the adaptive system
is detecting the intruder and developing antibodies targeted to eliminate them.
Stage 2-3 the treatment
I promote should be applied when the symptoms have been determined. Sooner is better than later to minimize the
amount of damage. It can be argued that a later response will build up your
immunity but why would you risk the loss of taste and smell, damage to your
Stage 3, The production of antibodies is a high response
most of the time. But viruses have had a head start and therefore some catching up is needed by antibody production. The net effect is shown between the solid red
and dashed lines just below the horizontal axis. When the rate of antibody production
is greater that than the rate of virus replication then the cold duration is
only 7 to 11 days roughly. This is at
the first blue and red vertical dotted lines.
Stage 4, But if the development of antibodies is a weak
response, (the lower red dashed line), and the virus is stopped, (the vertical red
dashed line) because there are no more cells to corrupt, then the cold
continues in stage 4. I can only speculate what happens in this last stage. I
think this is where shortness of breath starts.
Several things are starting or pending. If you are lucky it all stops
here. The viruses can’t survive in the higher temperature and humidity in the
lungs, nor can they survive the demolition process in the digestion system. So
it must be bacteria part of the immune system defense has been destroyed in the
nasal cavity and the pharynx, nose, and throat.
Not a good place to be.
That is the best that
I can do. It is a little complicated. How can this be used? If you have a fever,
that seems to be the first line of defense.
They have tested on mice and found that when you let nature prevail and
don’t take fever depressants your survival chances are much greater. Researchers
use special mice that mimic our responses. What is interesting to me is the response
curves or net effect. If you have a high mean temperature and metabolic rate you
are likely in the 95 - 99% that will survive. Your immune response curve will
be steeper and the cold will stop sooner.
What worries me is how close the response are. Even if you have vaccination and you still
get the virus your starting point for the blue line starts much sooner and thus
you are still a way ahead of the virus. Stage 2 is shortened and the net response
is much less and the cold stops sooner.
It should be noted the diagram will be different for everyone. It can be generalized to fit a population but
that is a big job and you must have access to the data.
The last point is that the red lines stop when the treatment
is applied. Pharmaceutical companies are
working on pills and aerosols now, that will essentially do the same as the heat
treatment. I’m partial to my generic solution.
Alan Robb, PhD, Engineer
Some References (revised 02- Nov 23/21)
- Why is temperature sensitivity important for the success of
common respiratory viruses?
Eccles R., Rev Med Virol. 2020;e02153.
2. -Body temperature and host
species preferences of SARS-CoV-2.
3. -The Effects of Temperature and Relative Humidity on the Viability
of the SARS
K. H. Chan, et al, https://www.hindawi.com/journals/av/2011/734690/
4. -Role of fever and ambient temperature in COVID-19
5. -Animal and translational models of
SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID19
Johansen1, et al,
Immunology (2020) 13:877–891;
-Fever and the thermal regulation of immunity: the immune system feels the heat
7. Protective Facemask
Impact on Human Thermoregulation: An Overview
Raymond J. Roberge*, Jung-Hyun Kim and Aitor Coca
8. Local Hyperthermia benefits natural and experimiental common colds
David Tyrrell, Ian Barrow, James Arthur
BMJ 002231-0020 1989
9. Turning up the heat on COVID-19: heat as a therapeutic intervention[version 2; approved]
Extreme wellness Institute,
Melbourne, VIC, Australia